Using climate driven models of vector-borne viral disease transmission, the project aims to demonstrate:

• The key principles underlying relationships between climate and disease, and which climatic factors have the greatest impact on disease transmission potential.
• The impact of error within disease transmission models, and where improved data can increase the accuracy of modelling.
• The impact climate change may have on vector-borne viral disease transmission. Generated risk maps can potentially act as an 'early warning system', identifying areas with high potential for disease transmission in response to climatic change, and can investigate the probability of establishment or fade-out of outbreaks and determine changing rates in new cases and long-term disease persistence within the EMME.
• How risk maps can facilitate the control of vector-borne diseases. The project aims to carry out scenario analysis, including assessing the impact of climate change mitigation on disease transmission and assessing the influence of climatic variability on intervention dynamics to optimise the timing and scale of intervention, facilitating vector control planning where resources are limited.

In combination with mosquito surveillance to detect potential vectors of emerging mosquito transmitted disease, these will be of key importance and direct benefit to Public Health Services in EMME countries for implementation of further surveillance programmes for vectors of disease, where to focus vector control and health surveillance strategies in order to help prevent establishment/spread of vectors.